No, it’s doable, it’s just more costly. IMO, the easiest method is to start with the pool of all registered voters and then randomize a selection of a number (say 1,500 or 2,000). Then you proceed to poll all of those people. If you don’t have a landline, you use the big data companies to cross-reference to cell lines. You will get almost everyone this way.

From the larger list, you ask likelihood to vote and reference it against previous voting records on the person. Someone saying they’re 100% and having only voted once in a 10 yr time frame is an anomaly so you can weed them out. But, if in the aggregate you see a lot of those 100% for previous 1 of 8s, then you also have a trend.

The harder issue is dealing with no-show affect. People see voting as something they should do, therefore if you ask them if they plan to do it, they feel they should say yes even if they’re a 50/50 or don’t plan to vote. It’s why nearly every poll you take projecting turnout from RVs will indicate a turnout 10-15 points higher than the actual day.

This is among the factors that can skew the poll. After the initial story, I asked for and received the poll questions and the order in which they were asked. All the head to head and favorability questions were asked before the issues questions — which they did not fully share. If that wasn’t the case, then that is a problem.